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Chris Hurst
Joined: 27 Jul 2007
Posts: 572
Location: United States, California,
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 Posted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 11:10 am Post subject: |
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Do you guys think this means the portion of the automotive world who is into driving sports cars or racing karts will diminish due to lack of exposure to driving in general?
What would it mean for a kid getting their license now? If everything went autonomous how would you obtain a license for something you don't have to interact with or would you need to be qualified at all? |
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Nick Weil
Joined: 18 Jul 2001
Posts: 1801
Location: United States, Florida, Orlando, FL US of A
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| Posted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 2:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Chris Hurst wrote: | Do you guys think this means the portion of the automotive world who is into driving sports cars or racing karts will diminish due to lack of exposure to driving in general?
What would it mean for a kid getting their license now? If everything went autonomous how would you obtain a license for something you don't have to interact with or would you need to be qualified at all? |
It wouldn't diminish unless it was somehow deemed illegal. People have raced as long as they have been upright. On foot, on horse, in vehicles. It's competition and you can't simply remove that by creating an automated version of the motor vehicle.
As far as licensing, if autonomous cars were the ONLY thing allowed on the highways, there would STILL be enthusiasts (drivers) that would race them on private tracks just like they do now. And those enthusiasts would have to go through some sort of licensing/registration process just like they do now.
This is why your feelings of anger and angst toward the subject are really not well founded. Racing and vehicle competition will go on as long as there are humans and vehicles.
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Chris Hurst
Joined: 27 Jul 2007
Posts: 572
Location: United States, California,
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| Posted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 10:29 pm Post subject: |
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For me Nick my introduction to driving was through a road car, I grew up riding passenger in modified cars my dad owned when I was 12. Thats where everything started for me. He didn't race on tracks because he couldn't afford it so we went to Mulholland and drove in the mountains for thousands of miles a year.
If cars were autonomous would I have had that same experience that brought me to where I am today?
It's uncertain, but what is certain is that when I got my license I took a huge interest in the sport. Karting came to me as a result of autocross and autocross came as a result of driving in the mountains.
My feelings of negativity are not well founded according to you, but to a lot of people who I have spoken to about the subject I am not off base. Both enthusiasts and non enthusiasts alike.
My mom doesn't like fast cars or racing herself and she completely disagrees with going full autonomous because of what it says about society.
Autonomous vehicles will change peoples perception of driving and a perceptual change in culture is one of the most powerful things in the world. |
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Nick Weil
Joined: 18 Jul 2001
Posts: 1801
Location: United States, Florida, Orlando, FL US of A
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| Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2012 11:58 am Post subject: |
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I guess we'll agree to disagree. You're obviously younger. Check back in 20 years and see the results. This discussion was had 30 years ago when people said that traction control, ABS and injection would ruin the world of motorsports... It was had again about 20 years ago with active suspension. The list goes on and on, the debate never changes, but the results are always the same.
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Chris Hurst
Joined: 27 Jul 2007
Posts: 572
Location: United States, California,
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| Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2012 2:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Nick Weil wrote: | | I guess we'll agree to disagree. You're obviously younger. Check back in 20 years and see the results. This discussion was had 30 years ago when people said that traction control, ABS and injection would ruin the world of motorsports... It was had again about 20 years ago with active suspension. The list goes on and on, the debate never changes, but the results are always the same. |
Injection is different in my mind and I've spoken to a lot of guys who used to build engines in Nascar they all have different opinions about it. As for TC and ABS neither of those are allowed in motor sport to my knowledge, but I have heard stories from Nascar insiders that traction control was used illegally by many drivers using key FOBs and the secondary ignition box to retard spark timing. Both of which are illegal in the sport.
You are right though, we'll see in 20 years what the results of this are if any... |
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Joe Palmer
Joined: 19 Sep 2006
Posts: 151
Location: United States, Florida, St. Augustine
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| Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2012 6:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Nick Weil wrote: | | I guess we'll agree to disagree. You're obviously younger. Check back in 20 years and see the results. This discussion was had 30 years ago when people said that traction control, ABS and injection would ruin the world of motorsports... It was had again about 20 years ago with active suspension. The list goes on and on, the debate never changes, but the results are always the same. |
This exactly the point I was trying to make. Technology advancing is like time it self, it just keeps going and going. Nick, you have been around karting alot longer than I have, so tell me how much further advanvced are karts today vs. when you started out? I sure hope you tell me they're leaps and bounds more advanced, or it kinda ruins my point! 
Chris, advancements in technology will continue to come. Its what we do with the technology that matters most. |
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Chris Hurst
Joined: 27 Jul 2007
Posts: 572
Location: United States, California,
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| Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2012 7:42 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="Joe Palmer"] | Nick Weil wrote: |
Chris, advancements in technology will continue to come. Its what we do with the technology that matters most. |
That was my main point. I'm studying computer sciences and I'm not some gap toothed redneck from the south spitting chewing tobacco with my friends while we burn ECUs and fuel injectors in the backyard.
I just think automating driving will start as an option and eventually become mandated. As a person who got into motor racing through street cars I just think it's unfortunate for the kids and it will narrow the margin of people who discover the joy of driving.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't the biggest change in karting over the years be tire technology? Everything in karting seems to be a function of how much grip a track / tire has including chassis design.
They still use carburetors, there is no active aero in karting, no real exotic materials, no fuel injection. Not to say they are simple machines to tune, design or be fast in, but what major tech advancements has karting seen in the last 20 or 30 years? |
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Tim Doll
Joined: 18 Jul 2001
Posts: 2646
Location: United States, Washington,
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| Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2012 9:50 pm Post subject: |
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It's interesting to note that nearly all racing series have intentionally 'dumbed down' the technology in the cars to keep the driver more relevant. F1 banned active suspensions, traction control, anti-lock brakes, fully automatic transmissions, and various aero aids. In fact the spec engine control unit that they all must use is basically there to try to prevent cheating.
Don't get me wrong - I fully expect to see self driving cars in the next 20-30 years. The progress just in the last few years has been amazing - I think it was only about 5 years ago they started a competition for fully autonomous cars. The objective was to drive a simple course to a destination several miles away. The first year none of the cars made it out of the parking lot  Now they've had to toughen the task because it was considered too simple and all the cars were easily completing the course 
The problem for pretty much any fully automated system is that computers have a tough time dealing with the unexpected - certain unanticipated failures can really throw them for a loop. Granted not all humans handle them well, but we stand a better chance. A computer can react way faster to an emergency than any human - the trick is doing the right thing in response. At least for now humans still have the edge in that department. ~30 years ago, on the first lap of a kart race, I suffered a complete brake failure approaching a slow corner at high speed, in the middle of a pack of at least a dozen karts. The question wasn't if I was going to crash, it was how bad and how many others I was going to take with me. The short story is I managed to turn it into a minor accident that I walked away from, without involving any other karts and the kart didn't suffer much damage. We've got a long way to go before a computer program could make those sort of decisions that I did almost instinctively.
I was watching the German F1 qualifying in the rain this morning - we've got a long, long way to go before a computer could do the job that Alonso, Vettel, Webber, etc. were doing in changing low grip conditions. Will we get there? Good question - perhaps 20 or 30 years from now we'll see a competition that, instead of humans playing chess or Jepardy against computers, they'll be racing cars 
Again, the limiting factor is the programing. Humans have the incredible capability to create their own knowledge - to learn beyond what they've been taught or experienced.
Even using "fuzzy" or 'adaptive' logic, computer programs are (so far)unable to go beyond their experience. Also, at least in their current state of development, they can sometimes do things unexpected. In the aerospace industry - software developers are specifically banned from using adaptive logic for any flight critical functionality.
BTW, I've never heard of a case where a human 'locked up', and you had to turn it off then back on before the human would function properly  We also tend to be less sensitive to malfunction due to Electro Magnetic Interference 
| Chris Hurst wrote: | | Are you in aviation as a profession? |
I've spent the last 35 years as a propulsion engineer in Boeing Commercial Aircraft. Most of that time I've worked engine controls for the 747, 757, and 767, and I was responsible for certification of the engine control system on the new 747-8. All the engine controls developed in the last 25 years have been what we call FADEC - Full Authority Digital Electronic Control - basically fly by wire for the engines. The engine control and associated hardware are developed to "Design Assurance Level A" - e.g. flight critical. So I know a little bit about what it takes to develop software that can kill people if it doesn't work right.
Tim
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Chris Hurst
Joined: 27 Jul 2007
Posts: 572
Location: United States, California,
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| Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2012 11:07 pm Post subject: |
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Nice to know there are other humans on EKN Tim.
Interesting background. I am going back to school for computer sciences and have been looking into JPL, Boeing and the FBI / CIA. Not committed to any in particular and I would love to start my own company, but keeping my options open. |
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Nick Weil
Joined: 18 Jul 2001
Posts: 1801
Location: United States, Florida, Orlando, FL US of A
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| Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 6:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Joe Palmer wrote: |
This exactly the point I was trying to make. Technology advancing is like time it self, it just keeps going and going. Nick, you have been around karting alot longer than I have, so tell me how much further advanvced are karts today vs. when you started out? I sure hope you tell me they're leaps and bounds more advanced, or it kinda ruins my point!
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I would say there have been some advancements in karting, but almost 90% of the advancements are related to ancillary stuff. Dataloggers(and their plethora of sensors now), bodywork, and safety equipment. As far as the engines go, not much advancement. No fuel injection (too costly). No major engine design changes (there's already too many different engines). The DD-2 is kind of a new thing, but even the technology within it is all fairly old school.
So, as it relates to karting, your theory is kind of busted, but kind of not. We are certainly monitoring more and more of our inputs with all of these awesome sensors. We are definitely getting injured less with our lighter helmets, better neck/head restraints, ribvests, etc. But on the developing technology as it relates to the motors, we're still in the dark ages.
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Nick Weil
Authorized Rotax Service Center and Dealer since 2002
2004 Team USA Rotax Worlds Finals DD-2 Driver
Want to save money AND grow the economy? www.fairtax.org |
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Chris Hurst
Joined: 27 Jul 2007
Posts: 572
Location: United States, California,
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| Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 6:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Nick Weil wrote: |
I would say there have been some advancements in karting, but almost 90% of the advancements are related to ancillary stuff. Dataloggers(and their plethora of sensors now), bodywork, and safety equipment. As far as the engines go, not much advancement. No fuel injection (too costly). No major engine design changes (there's already too many different engines). The DD-2 is kind of a new thing, but even the technology within it is all fairly old school.
So, as it relates to karting, your theory is kind of busted, but kind of not. We are certainly monitoring more and more of our inputs with all of these awesome sensors. We are definitely getting injured less with our lighter helmets, better neck/head restraints, ribvests, etc. But on the developing technology as it relates to the motors, we're still in the dark ages. |
My hypothesis was aimed more at the upper echelon of motor sport which is why it was posted in the non karting motorsports discussion section of the forum. Are data loggers really ancillary to karting? I would think they are a nice addition to build upon once a person has a good amount of knowledge, but not something you have to have to be a good driver or tuner. |
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joseph hollinger
Joined: 12 Sep 2002
Posts: 9536
Location: United States, California, san francisco
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| Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 11:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Tim Doll wrote: | | It's interesting to note that nearly all racing series have intentionally 'dumbed down' the technology in the cars to keep the driver more relevant. F1 banned active suspensions, traction control, anti-lock brakes, fully automatic transmissions, and various aero aids. |
Partially. At least in the F1 case there were clearly many other factors that contributed to the technology ban. And its somewhat ironic that removal of those aides contributed in such a substantial way to the death of perhaps the greatest driver ever to drive a formula one car.
| Tim Doll wrote: |
Don't get me wrong - I fully expect to see self driving cars in the next 20-30 years. |
If you could revive the fastest computer in the world from 30 years ago it couldn't match the processing speed of your smartphone. If that model holds true, the smartphone of 30 years from now will have the processing power of something like 1.5 million of the fastest current Intel cores.
And that's what a phone is going to be capable of. Computers at that point will be well past what any human can do. Those are the numbers. Anyone can look that up. Thirty years from now you will not be as capable as commonly available machines. That's a foregone conclusion.
| Tim Doll wrote: |
In the aerospace industry - software developers are specifically banned from using adaptive logic for any flight critical functionality. |
That may be true Tim, but my guess is that the reasons behind that are rooted in fear of the unknown and fear of civil liability. But if we were building race cars, and mine got to use machine learning while yours did not, how do you think that race would come out?
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Chris Hurst
Joined: 27 Jul 2007
Posts: 572
Location: United States, California,
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| Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 11:45 pm Post subject: |
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| joseph hollinger wrote: | | Tim Doll wrote: | | It's interesting to note that nearly all racing series have intentionally 'dumbed down' the technology in the cars to keep the driver more relevant. F1 banned active suspensions, traction control, anti-lock brakes, fully automatic transmissions, and various aero aids. |
Partially. At least in the F1 case there were clearly many other factors that contributed to the technology ban. And its somewhat ironic that removal of those aides contributed in such a substantial way to the death of perhaps the greatest driver ever to drive a formula one car.
| Tim Doll wrote: |
Don't get me wrong - I fully expect to see self driving cars in the next 20-30 years. |
If you could revive the fastest computer in the world from 30 years ago it couldn't match the processing speed of your smartphone. If that model holds true, the smartphone of 30 years from now will have the processing power of something like 1.5 million of the fastest current Intel cores.
And that's what a phone is going to be capable of. Computers at that point will be well past what any human can do. Those are the numbers. Anyone can look that up. Thirty years from now you will not be as capable as commonly available machines. That's a foregone conclusion.
| Tim Doll wrote: |
In the aerospace industry - software developers are specifically banned from using adaptive logic for any flight critical functionality. |
That may be true Tim, but my guess is that the reasons behind that are rooted in fear of the unknown and fear of civil liability. But if we were building race cars, and mine got to use machine learning while yours did not, how do you think that race would come out? |
Joseph I honestly think that depends on the driver. Would you bet on a computer against Senna in his prime? Do you think Bobby Fischer would lose in a chess game to a computer?
Take Senna and put him in the environment most humans use their automobiles in: driving to and from work. Do you really think a computer can drive in traffic better than Ayrton Senna could? Furthermore do you have to be Ayrton Senna to drive better than a computer in traffic? I don't think so.
This is where I think our solution to the problem is not to automate the driving process, but to require higher education and training levels to obtain a license. Autonomous cars are a band aid to the real problem which is that people in this country consider a license something that is their right to have, not something they need to prove they deserve.
There are people in the world who go so far beyond human capabilities they are anomalies. We call them geniuses. They practically behave like machines because the human brain is the fastest and most capable computer in the world to date.
Computers do not understand triumph, they do not understand motivation, they do not understand overcoming adversary. I think for this reason humans will always have an edge above computers in a competitive setting. Maybe not all humans, but the .01% will always be better.
"By estimation, the brain has about 100 million MIPS worth of processing power while recent super-computers only has a few million MIPS worth in processor speed. That said, the brain is still the winner in the race. Because of the cost, enthusiasm and efforts still required, computer technology has still some length to go before it will match the human brain's processing power."
Source: http://library.thinkquest.org/C001501/the_saga/compare.htm
The inventor of the microprocessor said in a lecture I watched recently that he believes the speed of processors is nearing it's plateau and that we will only be able to go so much faster. They will hit a wall. I know these kinds of rules tend to be broken, but I would think the man who has spent his life and is credited with the invention of the technology has a lot of weight to his ideas and statements on the subject.
Ted Hoff inventor of the microprocessor speaking about the limitations of technology (skip to about 26 minutes if you're not interested in his background / invention of the microprocessor):
http://www.listenonrepeat.com/watch/?v=QsBcIrwX-e0
Biography about Bobby Fischer for anyone interested:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKAW173cSjY |
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joseph hollinger
Joined: 12 Sep 2002
Posts: 9536
Location: United States, California, san francisco
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| Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 8:38 am Post subject: |
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| Chris Hurst wrote: | | Would you bet on a computer against Senna in his prime? Do you think Bobby Fischer would lose in a chess game to a computer? |
Absolutely I would. The technology to out-drive Senna may not be there right now, but its certainly not far off. And human grandmasters losing to computers is old news.
| Chris Hurst wrote: |
Take Senna and put him in the environment most humans use their automobiles in: driving to and from work. Do you really think a computer can drive in traffic better than Ayrton Senna could? Furthermore do you have to be Ayrton Senna to drive better than a computer in traffic? I don't think so. |
Nothing I've ever seen or heard about Senna would make me believe he would be any better than the rest of us on the commute to and from work.
| Chris Hurst wrote: |
"By estimation, the brain has about 100 million MIPS worth of processing power while recent super-computers only has a few million MIPS worth in processor speed. That said, the brain is still the winner in the race. Because of the cost, enthusiasm and efforts still required, computer technology has still some length to go before it will match the human brain's processing power."
Source: http://library.thinkquest.org/C001501/the_saga/compare.htm
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I assume you also read the earlier paragraph that states:
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1999's fastest PC processor chip on the market was a 700 MHz pentium that did 4200 MIPS. By simple calculation, we can see that we would need at least 24,000 of these processors in a system to match up to the total speed of the brain !!
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Well, it's 2012 and the world's fastest super computer includes over 1.5 million pentium type cores. Time moves on.
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A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on. -- Winston Churchill. |
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Benn Herr
Joined: 18 Jul 2001
Posts: 1584
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| Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 9:13 am Post subject: |
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Self-driving cars only concern me from the aspect of how people might use them. Will it get to the point where you load the kids in the car and send them to Grandma’s house? To school? To soccer practice? No adult, no responsible party, just show the kid how to input the return destination when it’s time to come home. Who is the responsible driver then? Can I stop off at the liquor store, pick up a twelve pack and start my evening on the way home? I’m not driving, the car is! Long drive across the desert coming home from the races? Just set the “cruise control” and jump in the back to catch some shut-eye.
I don’t think we really want any of those situations, but you know it’ll happen.
And what would be more fun than stealing a car, set it on auto drive, and then climb out the window into your buddies’ car. Although it would be pretty cool to have your stolen car do the “Bait Car” deal and drive them to the Police station!
I don’t mind the driver assist functions that are useful (ABS and the like). I hate the nanny state devices like seat belt buzzers and 85 mph speedometers. I consider it my job/duty to figure out how to use them to my best advantage.
Know your machine, use your machine.
P.S. It's a joke, but they are thinking about it!
http://www.wimp.com/levitatingcar/
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Benn Herr
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