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joseph hollinger
Joined: 12 Sep 2002
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Location: United States, California, san francisco
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 Posted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 8:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Pete Schaible wrote: | | The cost of the occasional glitch would be prohibitively expensive. |
Not any more expensive than the "glitches" that occur on the road every day.
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Chris Hurst
Joined: 27 Jul 2007
Posts: 569
Location: United States, California,
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| Posted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 8:22 pm Post subject: |
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| joseph hollinger wrote: | | Pete Schaible wrote: | | The cost of the occasional glitch would be prohibitively expensive. |
Not any more expensive than the "glitches" that occur on the road every day. |
But at least if you're a good driver the "glitches" that occur on the road every day can be avoided a majority of the time. A computer glitch or system failure is out of a persons hands and have they tested how these things act in a catastrophic failure? I want to know more about how these things operate and think before I am willing to put my life in their hands.
Now if you'll excuse me I'm going to get back to building my time machine as part of my plan to undo all of this. |
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joseph hollinger
Joined: 12 Sep 2002
Posts: 9475
Location: United States, California, san francisco
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| Posted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 8:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Chris Hurst wrote: |
But at least if you're a good driver the "glitches" that occur on the road every day can be avoided a majority of the time. A computer glitch or system failure is out of a persons hands and have they tested how these things act in a catastrophic failure? |
Well the computer is going to avoid them at least as well if not better. At some point, you're probably going to see people sued for taking and not letting the computer drive. How's it going to play when you back over the neighbor's kid because you didn't want the computer to drive?
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A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on. -- Winston Churchill. |
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joseph hollinger
Joined: 12 Sep 2002
Posts: 9475
Location: United States, California, san francisco
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| Posted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 8:45 pm Post subject: |
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| Tim Doll wrote: | | The limiting factor for something like a self-driving car is the programing. The best computer in the world can only do what it's programmed to do - what better way to learn how to program a self-driving car that to make it race. |
I don't know if that's really true any more. Certainly in the past, if you had a task that you wanted a computer to perform, you would write a program that at least attempts to decompose that task into a series of rules or steps. So if you wanted a computer to recognize forks (for example) you would write your program to look for objects with tines and handles and so forth.
That approach is really limited because even simple tasks often require large numbers of rules and the task of creating the code becomes unimaginable. So instead of doing it that way, scientists are increasingly creating programs that can learn and the computer is then "taught" to perform the desired task. A computer programed that way doesn't have any rules for forks or tines or handles. But if you show it 10,000 forks it builds its own internal process for determining what's a fork and what is not.
This is exactly the approach that IBM used to win its Jeopardy! challenge. They tried making a rule based system and failed, and turned to machine learning to build their winning machine.
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Chris Hurst
Joined: 27 Jul 2007
Posts: 569
Location: United States, California,
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| Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:43 am Post subject: |
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| joseph hollinger wrote: | | Chris Hurst wrote: |
But at least if you're a good driver the "glitches" that occur on the road every day can be avoided a majority of the time. A computer glitch or system failure is out of a persons hands and have they tested how these things act in a catastrophic failure? |
Well the computer is going to avoid them at least as well if not better. At some point, you're probably going to see people sued for taking and not letting the computer drive. How's it going to play when you back over the neighbor's kid because you didn't want the computer to drive? |
I've backed out of my driveway every day for the last 8 years of my life. My father has backed out of his driveways every day of his life for the last 48 years of his life 25 of which were in New York City and my mother has done the same for the last 38 years of her life. None of us have run over the neighborhood kids.
Faith in computers has reached a level in my mind that is bordering on false confidence. Tim is absolutely correct, a computer program is only as good as the person who has programmed it.
One of our family friends taught at Oxford for several years in technology and has made a living programming adaptive strategies in machines for the last 30 or 40 years of his life. I'll give him a ring on the subject, take some notes and post his replies for you guys regardless or whether or not I agree with him. That way we can get a professional opinion on the subject. |
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Joe Palmer
Joined: 19 Sep 2006
Posts: 151
Location: United States, Florida, St. Augustine
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| Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 8:32 am Post subject: |
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Chris,
I also enjoy watching the TED Talks videos. Some of the presentations have been absoluting amazing.
There's a documentry available on NetFlix called "The Transcendant Man". Its about Ray Kurzweil, and his uncanney ability to predict the future of technological capabilities. His theories; to some, might seem to be "way out there". But, once you learn a little about who he is, and some of his accomplishments you'll recognize he should be given respect. Not total blind faith, but respect.
Computer power or what the computer is capable of is quickly becoming a major societle issue much like Stem Cell research, abortsions, etc. Unfortunately, just like bio-science advancements, computer science will continue to move forward. Some believe that the "point of no return" will be when computers have achieved a greater IQ than humans. I think this might have already happen, I recently found an old TI pocket calculator I used in middle school which has a higher IQ than some people.
Ray Kurzweil predicts that witin the 20-25 years, we will begin to fuse man and machine. Actually implating (and connecting) computer hardware into our brains. Think of the possiblities/implications this could have on all sports.
Advancing technology is relentless, and the speed at which it advances continuously increases. We as a society have the responsibility to chose (very carefully) how we use and apply the technolgy we develope. Sometimes we do this well, some times we don't. Thats life I guess. |
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joseph hollinger
Joined: 12 Sep 2002
Posts: 9475
Location: United States, California, san francisco
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| Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 9:42 am Post subject: |
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| Chris Hurst wrote: |
I've backed out of my driveway every day for the last 8 years of my life. My father has backed out of his driveways every day of his life for the last 48 years of his life 25 of which were in New York City and my mother has done the same for the last 38 years of her life. None of us have run over the neighborhood kids.
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You can be sure about one thing: should you ever be involved in such an accident, your good driving record and the driving records of your parents will do you absolutely no benefit.
| Chris Hurst wrote: |
Faith in computers has reached a level in my mind that is bordering on false confidence. Tim is absolutely correct, a computer program is only as good as the person who has programmed it.
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Does your car have ABS?
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Benn Herr
Joined: 18 Jul 2001
Posts: 1580
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| Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 10:24 am Post subject: |
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The automatic driving car idea gets trotted out every couple of years, every time a research guy "discovers" drafting!
Safer, faster, easier. You can text while you're moving, you can use your phone on the way home! No more boring driving. Huzzah!
They already invented something for that - it's called a train.
The cost will be huge, the benefits small. People will misuse the system constantly. The only thing worse would be flying cars.
When it comes to competition between automatically controlled cars, I'm not worried. It'll be a contest of sort, with an appeal to a limited audience. But if you're going to go that far why not do it with virtual cars? How much greener would that be?
Oh, wait. We already have that too. My PS3 does that already!
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Benn Herr
Come see our Superkart Build Off @
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Joe Palmer
Joined: 19 Sep 2006
Posts: 151
Location: United States, Florida, St. Augustine
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| Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 1:31 pm Post subject: |
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"Autonomous" cars are already hear, and they have been for a long time. If your vehicle has ABS, Cruise Control, Traction Control, etc it has autonomous features.
Auto manufacturers are working on developing more and more autonomous features everyday. There are cars that can park themselves, cars equiped with the latest Cruise Control which senses when you're approaching another vehicle and automatically adjust your speed for you. The car will actually apply the brakes for you if neccessary. It goes on and on!
The people who develope these technologies, do so Because They Can! Then they figure out how to package the technology that it becomes marketable. Autonomous technology is like crack to most humans, we can't get enough of it. If a completely autonomous automobile is developed that is affordable to the masses, by stock in whatever company thats responsible.
If you were to equip your kart with a Mychron Data Acquisition System with every available feature they offer, you would have some serious technology on your kart. Ask some of the guys that have been around for 30-40 years if they would ever had thought there would be this much technology available. Most would say no, probably all would tell you they don't need all that jazz to tune their karts either. |
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Chris Hurst
Joined: 27 Jul 2007
Posts: 569
Location: United States, California,
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| Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 5:13 pm Post subject: |
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| joseph hollinger wrote: | | Chris Hurst wrote: |
I've backed out of my driveway every day for the last 8 years of my life. My father has backed out of his driveways every day of his life for the last 48 years of his life 25 of which were in New York City and my mother has done the same for the last 38 years of her life. None of us have run over the neighborhood kids.
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You can be sure about one thing: should you ever be involved in such an accident, your good driving record and the driving records of your parents will do you absolutely no benefit.
| Chris Hurst wrote: |
Faith in computers has reached a level in my mind that is bordering on false confidence. Tim is absolutely correct, a computer program is only as good as the person who has programmed it.
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Does your car have ABS? |
The car I raced for 6 years doubled as my road car and did not have ABS, the Tacoma I drive now has it and I don't really like it to be honest. With concern to accidents my feeling is when it's your time to go it's your time to go. All you can do until they is be aware and make good decisions based on past experiences and knowledge. I would rather be in control and trust myself than a machine. Thats all I'm trying to say. |
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Chris Hurst
Joined: 27 Jul 2007
Posts: 569
Location: United States, California,
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| Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 5:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Joe Palmer wrote: |
If you were to equip your kart with a Mychron Data Acquisition System with every available feature they offer, you would have some serious technology on your kart. Ask some of the guys that have been around for 30-40 years if they would ever had thought there would be this much technology available. Most would say no, probably all would tell you they don't need all that jazz to tune their karts either. |
I've learned a lot from Steve O'hara since I got in the sport and he always emphasizes tuning based on feel and the senses rather than a gauge which is how I was taught to drive sports cars. By feel and sound. |
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Chris Hurst
Joined: 27 Jul 2007
Posts: 569
Location: United States, California,
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| Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 5:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Joe Palmer wrote: | Chris,
I also enjoy watching the TED Talks videos. Some of the presentations have been absoluting amazing.
There's a documentry available on NetFlix called "The Transcendant Man". Its about Ray Kurzweil, and his uncanney ability to predict the future of technological capabilities. His theories; to some, might seem to be "way out there". But, once you learn a little about who he is, and some of his accomplishments you'll recognize he should be given respect. Not total blind faith, but respect.
Computer power or what the computer is capable of is quickly becoming a major societle issue much like Stem Cell research, abortsions, etc. Unfortunately, just like bio-science advancements, computer science will continue to move forward. Some believe that the "point of no return" will be when computers have achieved a greater IQ than humans. I think this might have already happen, I recently found an old TI pocket calculator I used in middle school which has a higher IQ than some people.
Ray Kurzweil predicts that witin the 20-25 years, we will begin to fuse man and machine. Actually implating (and connecting) computer hardware into our brains. Think of the possiblities/implications this could have on all sports.
Advancing technology is relentless, and the speed at which it advances continuously increases. We as a society have the responsibility to chose (very carefully) how we use and apply the technolgy we develope. Sometimes we do this well, some times we don't. Thats life I guess. |
That terrifies me honestly. I'm not opposed to technology at all, but once you start going down that road I think we're going to regret it and it opens a huge set of problems that far outweigh the solutions.
It reminds me of some of the video games I play where people hack them to gain a big advantage. They are more interested in winning than they are actually playing the game. The fun is in learning how to play the game and pushing your own mind and body to grasp new concepts or learn. If you start chipping your brain so you can take a corner faster or throw a ball harder it just ruins the purity of the sport.
It's like techno steroids.
Thanks for the info on the documentary I will be sure to check it out.
Last edited by Chris Hurst on Thu Jul 19, 2012 5:46 pm, edited 2 times in total |
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Chris Hurst
Joined: 27 Jul 2007
Posts: 569
Location: United States, California,
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| Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 5:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Benn Herr wrote: |
They already invented something for that - it's called a train.
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And some of the trains they have now are insanely fast:
"The world record for non-conventional train is held by the experimental Japanese JR-Maglev, having achieved 581 km/h (361 mph) on a magnetic-levitation track." I have a hard time believing autonomous cars would even be permitted to go fast and if something went wrong at 100 + mph I would not be willing to put my life in the hands of a programmer.
Furthermore what is the response delay in the case of a blowout or broken steering column or brake failure for example?
In theory I am not opposed to the autonomous car, but in practice and in terms of what it says about society and our values I am opposed to it.
In an extreme situation imagine a machine could do everything for you, what is the point of being human? I love driving and I love to participate in things and learning how to do something well. To automate that is to give up part of being human.
I'm gonna go watch The Matrix now. |
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joseph hollinger
Joined: 12 Sep 2002
Posts: 9475
Location: United States, California, san francisco
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| Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 8:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Chris Hurst wrote: |
Furthermore what is the response delay in the case of a blowout or broken steering column or brake failure for example?
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Infinitely faster than any human is going to react to those things. Not to mention the fact that the machine can implement all sorts of diagnostics that would prevent that situation from occurring in the first place. Machines two, humans zero.
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A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on. -- Winston Churchill.
Last edited by joseph hollinger on Fri Jul 20, 2012 9:03 am, edited 1 time in total |
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Jim Emerson
Joined: 01 Feb 2002
Posts: 567
Location: United States, Michigan, Commerce Township
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| Posted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 6:32 am Post subject: |
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Autonomous systems can't replace stupid drivers but as a developer of the technology it's super cool to applicate them on future vehicles in Detroit 
You will not replace drivers at the end of the day and more importantly the technology growth as seen in F1 has pushed the limits for traction control development both on the engine control side and brake control side.
The issue is we must develop items like ABS, Traction, Cruise Control (ACC) to support the sporty driver and the stupid driver who thinks going 80 mph on a snow covered road should be supported by the "safety systems." Oh the liability issues we see because of the "stupid drivers."
Continue discussion but Racing will always be Racing and the human factor is the competition for the drivers but the technology competition as engineers to make better traction controls is fun too 
Hey Weil quit picking on the guy with multiple languages 
-Emmo |
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